Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong primary performance and the district's Democratic lean, shaped by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, anchor the high trader-implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Analyst ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting consistent voter registration advantages and historical results in the Orange County area. The Republican nominee trails substantially in fundraising and name recognition. A reversal would require an unusually large national Republican wave, major candidate-specific developments, or sharp turnout shifts that overcome the district's structural tilt, outcomes traders currently price as low-probability events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-47 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-47 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$12,112 Vol.
$12,112 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
7%
$12,112 Vol.
$12,112 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$1,861 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$10,251 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong primary performance and the district's Democratic lean, shaped by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, anchor the high trader-implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Analyst ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting consistent voter registration advantages and historical results in the Orange County area. The Republican nominee trails substantially in fundraising and name recognition. A reversal would require an unusually large national Republican wave, major candidate-specific developments, or sharp turnout shifts that overcome the district's structural tilt, outcomes traders currently price as low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$12,112Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong primary performance and the district's Democratic lean, shaped by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, anchor the high trader-implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Analyst ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting consistent voter registration advantages and historical results in the Orange County area. The Republican nominee trails substantially in fundraising and name recognition. A reversal would require an unusually large national Republican wave, major candidate-specific developments, or sharp turnout shifts that overcome the district's structural tilt, outcomes traders currently price as low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$12,112Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong primary performance and the district's Democratic lean, shaped by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, anchor the high trader-implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Analyst ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting consistent voter registration advantages and historical results in the Orange County area. The Republican nominee trails substantially in fundraising and name recognition. A reversal would require an unusually large national Republican wave, major candidate-specific developments, or sharp turnout shifts that overcome the district's structural tilt, outcomes traders currently price as low-probability events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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