Derek Tran (D), the incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 nonpartisan primary with 53.8% of the vote against Republican Chuong Vo (15.3%) and other GOP candidates, setting up a November general election matchup. Forecasters classify the district as Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic based on voter registration patterns, recent election results, and the structural advantages of incumbency in this California seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these factors, as the Democratic nominee holds a substantial edge absent major shifts from polling, fundraising, or late-cycle events before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-45 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-45 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$25,099 Vol.
$25,099 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
89%
Partido Republicano
12%
$25,099 Vol.
$25,099 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$13,865 Vol.
89%
Partido Republicano
$11,234 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran (D), the incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 nonpartisan primary with 53.8% of the vote against Republican Chuong Vo (15.3%) and other GOP candidates, setting up a November general election matchup. Forecasters classify the district as Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic based on voter registration patterns, recent election results, and the structural advantages of incumbency in this California seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these factors, as the Democratic nominee holds a substantial edge absent major shifts from polling, fundraising, or late-cycle events before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$25,099Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran (D), the incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 nonpartisan primary with 53.8% of the vote against Republican Chuong Vo (15.3%) and other GOP candidates, setting up a November general election matchup. Forecasters classify the district as Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic based on voter registration patterns, recent election results, and the structural advantages of incumbency in this California seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these factors, as the Democratic nominee holds a substantial edge absent major shifts from polling, fundraising, or late-cycle events before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$25,099Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Derek Tran (D), the incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 nonpartisan primary with 53.8% of the vote against Republican Chuong Vo (15.3%) and other GOP candidates, setting up a November general election matchup. Forecasters classify the district as Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic based on voter registration patterns, recent election results, and the structural advantages of incumbency in this California seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these factors, as the Democratic nominee holds a substantial edge absent major shifts from polling, fundraising, or late-cycle events before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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