The 2026 Alaska Senate race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola stands as a toss-up under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by roughly 2 points or less. The August top-four primary produced a head-to-head matchup between the two frontrunners, and subsequent surveys through mid-September have fluctuated within the margin of error, reflecting Alaska’s divided electorate and the impact of turnout among independent and crossover voters. Fundraising edges, endorsements, and campaign spending have not produced sustained separation, while structural factors such as the state’s partisan lean and historical Senate results keep the contest competitive. Trader pricing on margin bands aligns with this narrow positioning, as modest shifts in late-cycle polling, voter mobilization, or ranked-choice tabulation could determine the final spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSullivan 6-9% 17%
Sullivan 9-12% 14%
Peltola 0-3% 13%
Peltola 3-6% 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Sullivan 12+%
4%
Sullivan 9-12%
14%
Sullivan 6-9%
17%
Sullivan 3-6%
8%
Sullivan 0-3%
12%
Peltola 0-3%
13%
Peltola 3-6%
13%
Peltola 6-9%
19%
Peltola 9-12%
3%
Peltola 12+%
13%
Sullivan 6-9% 17%
Sullivan 9-12% 14%
Peltola 0-3% 13%
Peltola 3-6% 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Sullivan 12+%
$246 Vol.
4%
Sullivan 9-12%
$42 Vol.
14%
Sullivan 6-9%
$42 Vol.
17%
Sullivan 3-6%
$62 Vol.
8%
Sullivan 0-3%
$43 Vol.
12%
Peltola 0-3%
$101 Vol.
13%
Peltola 3-6%
$42 Vol.
13%
Peltola 6-9%
$47 Vol.
19%
Peltola 9-12%
$53 Vol.
3%
Peltola 12+%
$42 Vol.
13%
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Alaska Senate race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola stands as a toss-up under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by roughly 2 points or less. The August top-four primary produced a head-to-head matchup between the two frontrunners, and subsequent surveys through mid-September have fluctuated within the margin of error, reflecting Alaska’s divided electorate and the impact of turnout among independent and crossover voters. Fundraising edges, endorsements, and campaign spending have not produced sustained separation, while structural factors such as the state’s partisan lean and historical Senate results keep the contest competitive. Trader pricing on margin bands aligns with this narrow positioning, as modest shifts in late-cycle polling, voter mobilization, or ranked-choice tabulation could determine the final spread.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volumen
$721Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Alaska Senate race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola stands as a toss-up under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by roughly 2 points or less. The August top-four primary produced a head-to-head matchup between the two frontrunners, and subsequent surveys through mid-September have fluctuated within the margin of error, reflecting Alaska’s divided electorate and the impact of turnout among independent and crossover voters. Fundraising edges, endorsements, and campaign spending have not produced sustained separation, while structural factors such as the state’s partisan lean and historical Senate results keep the contest competitive. Trader pricing on margin bands aligns with this narrow positioning, as modest shifts in late-cycle polling, voter mobilization, or ranked-choice tabulation could determine the final spread.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$721Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Alaska Senate race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola stands as a toss-up under ranked-choice voting, with recent polling averages showing the candidates separated by roughly 2 points or less. The August top-four primary produced a head-to-head matchup between the two frontrunners, and subsequent surveys through mid-September have fluctuated within the margin of error, reflecting Alaska’s divided electorate and the impact of turnout among independent and crossover voters. Fundraising edges, endorsements, and campaign spending have not produced sustained separation, while structural factors such as the state’s partisan lean and historical Senate results keep the contest competitive. Trader pricing on margin bands aligns with this narrow positioning, as modest shifts in late-cycle polling, voter mobilization, or ranked-choice tabulation could determine the final spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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