France enters Group I at the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the clear frontrunner, with traders assigning the highest implied probability due to its deep squad, recent strong form in friendlies against top opposition, and pedigree as two-time champions. Norway sits second on the back of an unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign and the presence of elite attackers like Erling Haaland, though limited depth and defensive questions temper expectations against stronger sides. Senegal benefits from its organized style, recent Africa Cup of Nations pedigree, and counter-attacking threat, positioning it as a plausible dark horse for second. Iraq trails far behind given its lower FIFA ranking and thinner resources against this level of competition. With matches beginning June 16 across U.S. and Canadian venues, the market reflects consensus on France’s superior overall quality and consistency.