Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence, supported by active supply chain ramp-up and confirmed September 2026 launch windows for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the first foldable iPhone, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for a 2026 release. Multiple suppliers and credible reporting indicate mass production of premium variants is underway, aligning with Apple’s historical pattern of unveiling new hardware in the fall. While component shortages have prompted rumors of a split schedule—potentially pushing the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027—the Pro lineup’s timeline remains on track for this year. Realistic risks include last-minute production delays or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear unlikely to shift the entire series beyond 2026 given current momentum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
99% Chance
$173,200 Vol.
$173,200 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
Ja
99% Chance
$173,200 Vol.
$173,200 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence, supported by active supply chain ramp-up and confirmed September 2026 launch windows for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the first foldable iPhone, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for a 2026 release. Multiple suppliers and credible reporting indicate mass production of premium variants is underway, aligning with Apple’s historical pattern of unveiling new hardware in the fall. While component shortages have prompted rumors of a split schedule—potentially pushing the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027—the Pro lineup’s timeline remains on track for this year. Realistic risks include last-minute production delays or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear unlikely to shift the entire series beyond 2026 given current momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$173,200Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence, supported by active supply chain ramp-up and confirmed September 2026 launch windows for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the first foldable iPhone, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for a 2026 release. Multiple suppliers and credible reporting indicate mass production of premium variants is underway, aligning with Apple’s historical pattern of unveiling new hardware in the fall. While component shortages have prompted rumors of a split schedule—potentially pushing the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027—the Pro lineup’s timeline remains on track for this year. Realistic risks include last-minute production delays or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear unlikely to shift the entire series beyond 2026 given current momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$173,200Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s consistent annual iPhone release cadence, supported by active supply chain ramp-up and confirmed September 2026 launch windows for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the first foldable iPhone, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for a 2026 release. Multiple suppliers and credible reporting indicate mass production of premium variants is underway, aligning with Apple’s historical pattern of unveiling new hardware in the fall. While component shortages have prompted rumors of a split schedule—potentially pushing the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027—the Pro lineup’s timeline remains on track for this year. Realistic risks include last-minute production delays or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, though these appear unlikely to shift the entire series beyond 2026 given current momentum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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