**Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026 state election, with the SPD at 28–29 percent, Die Linke near 11–12 percent, and the CDU around 9–10 percent.** Smaller parties hover near or below the 5 percent threshold required for Landtag representation. This distribution leaves the AfD well short of the roughly 45–50 percent vote share typically needed for an absolute majority of the 71 seats under proportional allocation, even accounting for overhang and leveling seats. Trader consensus on “No” at 95.1 percent reflects the stability of these figures across multiple surveys through July 2026 and the absence of any late surge or threshold-clearing collapse among rivals that would alter seat math. Plausible shifts capable of moving the outcome remain narrow and would require coordinated late movement in turnout or polling not yet evident in current data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGewinnt die AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern die absolute Mehrheit der Sitze?
Gewinnt die AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern die absolute Mehrheit der Sitze?
Ja
5% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026 state election, with the SPD at 28–29 percent, Die Linke near 11–12 percent, and the CDU around 9–10 percent.** Smaller parties hover near or below the 5 percent threshold required for Landtag representation. This distribution leaves the AfD well short of the roughly 45–50 percent vote share typically needed for an absolute majority of the 71 seats under proportional allocation, even accounting for overhang and leveling seats. Trader consensus on “No” at 95.1 percent reflects the stability of these figures across multiple surveys through July 2026 and the absence of any late surge or threshold-clearing collapse among rivals that would alter seat math. Plausible shifts capable of moving the outcome remain narrow and would require coordinated late movement in turnout or polling not yet evident in current data.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ET
Volumen
$1,363Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026 state election, with the SPD at 28–29 percent, Die Linke near 11–12 percent, and the CDU around 9–10 percent.** Smaller parties hover near or below the 5 percent threshold required for Landtag representation. This distribution leaves the AfD well short of the roughly 45–50 percent vote share typically needed for an absolute majority of the 71 seats under proportional allocation, even accounting for overhang and leveling seats. Trader consensus on “No” at 95.1 percent reflects the stability of these figures across multiple surveys through July 2026 and the absence of any late surge or threshold-clearing collapse among rivals that would alter seat math. Plausible shifts capable of moving the outcome remain narrow and would require coordinated late movement in turnout or polling not yet evident in current data.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volumen
$1,363Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent ahead of the September 20, 2026 state election, with the SPD at 28–29 percent, Die Linke near 11–12 percent, and the CDU around 9–10 percent.** Smaller parties hover near or below the 5 percent threshold required for Landtag representation. This distribution leaves the AfD well short of the roughly 45–50 percent vote share typically needed for an absolute majority of the 71 seats under proportional allocation, even accounting for overhang and leveling seats. Trader consensus on “No” at 95.1 percent reflects the stability of these figures across multiple surveys through July 2026 and the absence of any late surge or threshold-clearing collapse among rivals that would alter seat math. Plausible shifts capable of moving the outcome remain narrow and would require coordinated late movement in turnout or polling not yet evident in current data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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