**Trader consensus heavily favors no large language model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, reflecting the current frontier at roughly 1500–1506.** As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 leads the text leaderboard near 1506, followed closely by other Claude variants and Meta’s Muse Spark models, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini 3.x sit just behind. The 44-plus-point gap to 1550 remains substantial given recent monthly gains of 5–15 Elo for top releases and the widening closed-model advantage over open-weight contenders. Anthropic’s repeated high placements in human-preference evaluations underpin its modest 9.5% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI, though sustained acceleration in capability or new benchmark-breaking releases would be required to shift the outlook before December.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeines im Jahr 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.4%
$122,904 Vol.
$122,904 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Keines im Jahr 2026
84%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
6%
1%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Keines im Jahr 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.4%
$122,904 Vol.
$122,904 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Keines im Jahr 2026
$26,000 Vol.
84%
Anthropic
$17,412 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$14,673 Vol.
6%
$11,499 Vol.
1%
xAI
$9,350 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,416 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,703 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors no large language model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, reflecting the current frontier at roughly 1500–1506.** As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 leads the text leaderboard near 1506, followed closely by other Claude variants and Meta’s Muse Spark models, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini 3.x sit just behind. The 44-plus-point gap to 1550 remains substantial given recent monthly gains of 5–15 Elo for top releases and the widening closed-model advantage over open-weight contenders. Anthropic’s repeated high placements in human-preference evaluations underpin its modest 9.5% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI, though sustained acceleration in capability or new benchmark-breaking releases would be required to shift the outlook before December.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$122,904Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader consensus heavily favors no large language model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, reflecting the current frontier at roughly 1500–1506.** As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 leads the text leaderboard near 1506, followed closely by other Claude variants and Meta’s Muse Spark models, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini 3.x sit just behind. The 44-plus-point gap to 1550 remains substantial given recent monthly gains of 5–15 Elo for top releases and the widening closed-model advantage over open-weight contenders. Anthropic’s repeated high placements in human-preference evaluations underpin its modest 9.5% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI, though sustained acceleration in capability or new benchmark-breaking releases would be required to shift the outlook before December.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$122,904Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors no large language model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, reflecting the current frontier at roughly 1500–1506.** As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 leads the text leaderboard near 1506, followed closely by other Claude variants and Meta’s Muse Spark models, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini 3.x sit just behind. The 44-plus-point gap to 1550 remains substantial given recent monthly gains of 5–15 Elo for top releases and the widening closed-model advantage over open-weight contenders. Anthropic’s repeated high placements in human-preference evaluations underpin its modest 9.5% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI, though sustained acceleration in capability or new benchmark-breaking releases would be required to shift the outlook before December.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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