Ongoing conflict with Russia remains the dominant barrier, as NATO members require consensus for accession and have shown no willingness to extend Article 5 guarantees amid active hostilities. Recent 2026 summits reaffirmed Ukraine’s long-term path to membership through increased interoperability and military aid pledges but stopped short of invitations or timelines, consistent with statements from U.S. officials and former Ukrainian commanders citing unresolved security risks. Traders price near-certain “No” odds through 2026 because accession demands unanimous ally agreement, completed reforms, and typically a stable peace—conditions unmet in the current environment. A rapid ceasefire enabling formal talks or unexpected shifts in member positions could still alter the trajectory before year-end.