**Russia’s State Duma elections are set for 18–20 September 2026, with traders pricing the 50–53% turnout bracket highest (37.0%) followed by 53–56% (22.1%).** This consensus reflects the Kremlin’s explicit 50% turnout target, which regional administrations have been instructed to meet even after lowering United Russia’s vote-share goal to around 45%. State pollster VTsIOM reported 66% of respondents intending to vote, while independent surveys show lower awareness and enthusiasm amid economic slowdown and war-related fatigue. Administrative tools such as three-day voting, expanded remote electronic voting in roughly half the regions, and pressure on public-sector employees and students are expected to deliver the baseline figure. At the same time, efforts to “dry out” interest among opposition-leaning voters and the absence of competitive opposition limit upside momentum. Historical precedent from the 2021 election (51.7% turnout) and the unchanged official benchmark reinforce the 50–56% range as the most probable outcome under current conditions. Late-campaign mobilization or unexpected apathy could still shift results within the narrow window.