OpenAI’s infrastructure has logged frequent minor incidents through June 2026, with ChatGPT showing 99.79% uptime yet dozens of brief elevated-error events that traders view as the baseline for July. Heavy reliance on Microsoft Azure, ongoing model scaling, and rapid deployment cycles create recurring stability risks, while the lack of any major multi-hour outage since early 2025 keeps probabilities tightly clustered between three and five-plus days. Key swing factors include whether a planned summer update or traffic spike triggers cascading failures versus continued incremental fixes that limit most days to partial or sub-hour disruptions. Traders are weighting the recent incident frequency heavily against the platform’s improving median resolution times.