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Politik·Globale Wahlen

Wahl in Neuseeland: Wahlbeteiligung

icon for Wahl in Neuseeland: Wahlbeteiligung
Politik·Globale Wahlen

Wahl in Neuseeland: Wahlbeteiligung

78-80% 37%

76-78% 27%

80-82% 22.6%

<76% 5.0%

Polymarket

$19,916 Vol.

78-80% 37%

76-78% 27%

80-82% 22.6%

<76% 5.0%

Polymarket

$19,916 Vol.

<76%

$1,049 Vol.

5%

76-78%

$4,174 Vol.

27%

78-80%

$7,223 Vol.

37%

80-82%

$5,375 Vol.

23%

82-84%

$1,288 Vol.

1%

84%+

$807 Vol.

4%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.Declining youth voter enrolment, which has fallen to 53% among 18- to 24-year-olds as of mid-2026 from 60% in 2023, stands as the dominant factor shaping trader consensus around 78-80% turnout for New Zealand's November 7 general election. This continues a multi-year trend that reduces the eligible voting pool ahead of advance voting from October 26, while overall enrolment figures and a lower dormant roll compared with 2023 provide limited offsetting support. Historical turnout of 78.2% in 2023 anchors expectations, with the close contest between the National-led government and opposition blocs offering modest mobilization incentives but unlikely to reverse youth disengagement. The resulting distribution of probabilities, heaviest in the 76-82% bands, reflects these structural headwinds more than short-term campaign developments.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Volumen
$19,916
Enddatum
7. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.Declining youth voter enrolment, which has fallen to 53% among 18- to 24-year-olds as of mid-2026 from 60% in 2023, stands as the dominant factor shaping trader consensus around 78-80% turnout for New Zealand's November 7 general election. This continues a multi-year trend that reduces the eligible voting pool ahead of advance voting from October 26, while overall enrolment figures and a lower dormant roll compared with 2023 provide limited offsetting support. Historical turnout of 78.2% in 2023 anchors expectations, with the close contest between the National-led government and opposition blocs offering modest mobilization incentives but unlikely to reverse youth disengagement. The resulting distribution of probabilities, heaviest in the 76-82% bands, reflects these structural headwinds more than short-term campaign developments.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Volumen
$19,916
Enddatum
7. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Verwandte

icon for Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

37%
icon for Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

30%
icon for Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

55%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wahl in Neuseeland: Wahlbeteiligung" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „78-80%" mit 37%, gefolgt von „76-78%" mit 27%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 37¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 37% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wahl in Neuseeland: Wahlbeteiligung" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $19.9K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 29, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Wahl in Neuseeland: Wahlbeteiligung" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wahl in Neuseeland: Wahlbeteiligung" ist „78-80%" mit 37%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 37% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „76-78%" mit 27%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wahl in Neuseeland: Wahlbeteiligung" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.