Recent model consensus from agencies including China's Central Meteorological Administration points to a minimum temperature near 19–20 °C in Wuhan on 18 September, shaped by a weakening upper-level trough and northerly flow that delivered cooler, moister air earlier in the week. Persistent cloud cover and light rain or drizzle through the night will limit radiational cooling while elevated humidity raises the dew-point temperature, narrowing the diurnal range. Light northerly winds around 2–4 m/s will promote modest boundary-layer mixing, preventing sharper drops below 18 °C or allowing brief clearing that could push the low toward 22 °C or higher. Traders appear to weigh residual model spread in precipitation timing and local urban effects against climatological September lows near 21 °C, producing tightly matched probabilities across the 14 °C–below and 24 °C–plus tails.