Traders assign the strongest probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts in the August 18–25, 2026 window, reflecting the Supreme Leader’s historically low personal output on social media platforms. At an advanced age, Khamenei relies primarily on official channels for statements tied to religious observances or major foreign-policy events rather than routine commentary. The mid-August period contains no major Iranian holidays, scheduled summits, or acute escalation signals that have previously prompted higher activity. Recent months have shown consistent restraint absent direct military or diplomatic crises, reinforcing the market’s assessment that routine institutional messaging will dominate and keep totals low.