Joseph Aoun has held Lebanon’s presidency since his January 2025 election by parliament, which ended a prolonged vacancy under the country’s sectarian power-sharing system. His six-year term runs through 2031, with no scheduled parliamentary vote, constitutional challenge, or coalition shift reported that would force an early exit by late 2026. Recent activity reinforces continuity: Aoun conducted high-level diplomacy in Washington and at the Vatican in July–August 2026 focused on Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah disarmament, and Lebanese Armed Forces support, signaling broad domestic and international backing. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 92.6% implied probability because structural term rules, post-election stability, and the absence of any credible removal mechanism or crisis outweigh speculative scenarios such as sudden political realignment or external pressure.