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icon for Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?
Politik·Kanada

Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?

icon for Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?
Politik·Kanada

Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?

Ja

20% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

Ja

20% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify. An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed. A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify. Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S.-Canada tariff escalations, including 50% duties on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods after trade talks collapsed in August 2026, prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to threaten electricity export restrictions or surcharges as leverage. Federal Prime Minister Mark Carney has prioritized dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs effective September 8 rather than energy measures. Other provincial leaders, such as New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt, have ruled out power cutoffs for now, while grid operators indicate any changes would primarily affect prices rather than reliability. Historical precedent from 2025 shows similar Ontario surcharges were quickly rescinded amid negotiations. With federal emphasis on targeted countermeasures, cross-border grid agreements intact, and months remaining until the December 31 resolution window, trader consensus assigns an 80.5% probability to no cutoff or throttling occurring.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.

An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.

A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.

Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify. An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed. A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify. Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify. An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed. A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify. Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S.-Canada tariff escalations, including 50% duties on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods after trade talks collapsed in August 2026, prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to threaten electricity export restrictions or surcharges as leverage. Federal Prime Minister Mark Carney has prioritized dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs effective September 8 rather than energy measures. Other provincial leaders, such as New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt, have ruled out power cutoffs for now, while grid operators indicate any changes would primarily affect prices rather than reliability. Historical precedent from 2025 shows similar Ontario surcharges were quickly rescinded amid negotiations. With federal emphasis on targeted countermeasures, cross-border grid agreements intact, and months remaining until the December 31 resolution window, trader consensus assigns an 80.5% probability to no cutoff or throttling occurring.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.

An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.

A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.

Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify. An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed. A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify. Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Kanada stellt die Stromversorgung in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember ein oder drosselt sie?" mit 20%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 20¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 20% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 25, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?" ist „Kanada stellt die Stromversorgung in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember ein oder drosselt sie?" mit 20%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 20% zuweist. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Kanada sperrt oder drosselt den Strom in die USA bis zum 31. Dezember?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.