Virginia’s congressional map remains the 2021 court-drawn lines after the state Supreme Court invalidated Democrats’ mid-decade redistricting effort in May 2026, preserving a 6-5 Democratic edge heading into November. Primaries concluded August 4 with crowded Democratic fields in the two most competitive Republican-held seats, while the remaining districts are rated safe for their incumbents. Traders assign nearly equal probability to outcomes ranging from fewer than five Democratic seats to eight or more because the three battlegrounds hinge on narrow margins, candidate quality, and national midterm dynamics under the Trump administration. Late polling shifts, turnout differences in suburban districts, or unexpected vacancies could quickly widen the distribution of implied probabilities.