Wellington's winter climatology sets baseline daily maxima near 12°C, with frequent southerly flows drawing cooler Antarctic air masses that suppress highs by several degrees. Recent MetService and NIWA guidance points to stable high pressure and possible low cloud or light showers around August 16, limiting solar heating and keeping the maximum near 10°C—the clear market favorite at 63% implied probability. Ensemble forecasts show modest variability, supporting the secondary 11°C (19%) and 9°C (12.5%) options while assigning low odds to warmer outliers above 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these model consensus signals and historical winter ranges against any potential for brief northerly warming, producing the observed tight clustering around 9–11°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wellington am 16. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Wellington am 16. August?
10°C 63%
11°C 20%
9°C 13%
12°C 4%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
13%
10°C
63%
11°C
20%
12°C
4%
13°C
3%
14°C or higher
3%
10°C 63%
11°C 20%
9°C 13%
12°C 4%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
4°C or below
$223 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$164 Vol.
1%
7°C
$30 Vol.
1%
8°C
$188 Vol.
2%
9°C
$315 Vol.
13%
10°C
$1,240 Vol.
63%
11°C
$325 Vol.
20%
12°C
$178 Vol.
4%
13°C
$5 Vol.
3%
14°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's winter climatology sets baseline daily maxima near 12°C, with frequent southerly flows drawing cooler Antarctic air masses that suppress highs by several degrees. Recent MetService and NIWA guidance points to stable high pressure and possible low cloud or light showers around August 16, limiting solar heating and keeping the maximum near 10°C—the clear market favorite at 63% implied probability. Ensemble forecasts show modest variability, supporting the secondary 11°C (19%) and 9°C (12.5%) options while assigning low odds to warmer outliers above 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these model consensus signals and historical winter ranges against any potential for brief northerly warming, producing the observed tight clustering around 9–11°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$2,884Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's winter climatology sets baseline daily maxima near 12°C, with frequent southerly flows drawing cooler Antarctic air masses that suppress highs by several degrees. Recent MetService and NIWA guidance points to stable high pressure and possible low cloud or light showers around August 16, limiting solar heating and keeping the maximum near 10°C—the clear market favorite at 63% implied probability. Ensemble forecasts show modest variability, supporting the secondary 11°C (19%) and 9°C (12.5%) options while assigning low odds to warmer outliers above 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these model consensus signals and historical winter ranges against any potential for brief northerly warming, producing the observed tight clustering around 9–11°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,884Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington's winter climatology sets baseline daily maxima near 12°C, with frequent southerly flows drawing cooler Antarctic air masses that suppress highs by several degrees. Recent MetService and NIWA guidance points to stable high pressure and possible low cloud or light showers around August 16, limiting solar heating and keeping the maximum near 10°C—the clear market favorite at 63% implied probability. Ensemble forecasts show modest variability, supporting the secondary 11°C (19%) and 9°C (12.5%) options while assigning low odds to warmer outliers above 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these model consensus signals and historical winter ranges against any potential for brief northerly warming, producing the observed tight clustering around 9–11°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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