Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF place Madrid's September 1 high near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly or variable winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating at the city's 655 m elevation. Ensemble spreads and hourly guidance show peak temperatures most often between 32–34°C, with limited upside from urban heat-island effects or minor model warm biases pushing a subset of solutions to 35°C. The near-even 47 % / 41.5 % split between 35 °C and 34 °C therefore reflects traders weighting the latest deterministic peaks and ensemble probabilities, while lower-probability outcomes below 33 °C or at 36 °C+ remain sidelined absent any major shift in steering flow or cloud cover before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 1. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 1. September?
35°C 46%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 6%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
8%
34°C
41%
35°C
46%
36°C
6%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 6%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
30°C or below
$89 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C
$5 Vol.
4%
33°C
$0 Vol.
8%
34°C
$86 Vol.
41%
35°C
$289 Vol.
46%
36°C
$7 Vol.
6%
37°C
$4 Vol.
2%
38°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF place Madrid's September 1 high near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly or variable winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating at the city's 655 m elevation. Ensemble spreads and hourly guidance show peak temperatures most often between 32–34°C, with limited upside from urban heat-island effects or minor model warm biases pushing a subset of solutions to 35°C. The near-even 47 % / 41.5 % split between 35 °C and 34 °C therefore reflects traders weighting the latest deterministic peaks and ensemble probabilities, while lower-probability outcomes below 33 °C or at 36 °C+ remain sidelined absent any major shift in steering flow or cloud cover before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$490Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF place Madrid's September 1 high near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly or variable winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating at the city's 655 m elevation. Ensemble spreads and hourly guidance show peak temperatures most often between 32–34°C, with limited upside from urban heat-island effects or minor model warm biases pushing a subset of solutions to 35°C. The near-even 47 % / 41.5 % split between 35 °C and 34 °C therefore reflects traders weighting the latest deterministic peaks and ensemble probabilities, while lower-probability outcomes below 33 °C or at 36 °C+ remain sidelined absent any major shift in steering flow or cloud cover before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$490Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF place Madrid's September 1 high near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly or variable winds that limit mixing and enhance daytime heating at the city's 655 m elevation. Ensemble spreads and hourly guidance show peak temperatures most often between 32–34°C, with limited upside from urban heat-island effects or minor model warm biases pushing a subset of solutions to 35°C. The near-even 47 % / 41.5 % split between 35 °C and 34 °C therefore reflects traders weighting the latest deterministic peaks and ensemble probabilities, while lower-probability outcomes below 33 °C or at 36 °C+ remain sidelined absent any major shift in steering flow or cloud cover before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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