Trader consensus for Istanbul’s August 11 daily maximum centers on 27–29 °C because short-range numerical guidance (GFS, ECMWF) and regional models initialized in early August 2026 place the city under a typical late-summer anticyclonic regime with modest northerly flow off the Black Sea. This steering pattern favors daytime highs near the long-term August mean of 28 °C while limiting extreme surface heating through marine moderation and afternoon sea-breeze development. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members clustering between 26–30 °C and only small tails extending to 31 °C or above, consistent with the market’s steep probability drop-off beyond 29 °C. No major synoptic shifts—such as a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air intrusion—have appeared in the latest model runs, keeping the distribution tightly anchored around climatology. Updated 48-hour forecasts issued on 9 August will be the next catalyst that could narrow or shift the implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 11. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 11. August?
28°C 48%
27°C 24%
29°C 22%
26°C 12%
NEU
NEU
11. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
12%
27°C
24%
28°C
48%
29°C
22%
30°C
5%
31°C
4%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
5%
28°C 48%
27°C 24%
29°C 22%
26°C 12%
NEU
NEU
11. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
24°C
$12 Vol.
1%
25°C
$39 Vol.
6%
26°C
$0 Vol.
12%
27°C
$0 Vol.
24%
28°C
$7 Vol.
48%
29°C
$0 Vol.
22%
30°C
$0 Vol.
5%
31°C
$2 Vol.
4%
32°C
$17 Vol.
6%
33°C or higher
$17 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Istanbul’s August 11 daily maximum centers on 27–29 °C because short-range numerical guidance (GFS, ECMWF) and regional models initialized in early August 2026 place the city under a typical late-summer anticyclonic regime with modest northerly flow off the Black Sea. This steering pattern favors daytime highs near the long-term August mean of 28 °C while limiting extreme surface heating through marine moderation and afternoon sea-breeze development. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members clustering between 26–30 °C and only small tails extending to 31 °C or above, consistent with the market’s steep probability drop-off beyond 29 °C. No major synoptic shifts—such as a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air intrusion—have appeared in the latest model runs, keeping the distribution tightly anchored around climatology. Updated 48-hour forecasts issued on 9 August will be the next catalyst that could narrow or shift the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$106Enddatum
11. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Istanbul’s August 11 daily maximum centers on 27–29 °C because short-range numerical guidance (GFS, ECMWF) and regional models initialized in early August 2026 place the city under a typical late-summer anticyclonic regime with modest northerly flow off the Black Sea. This steering pattern favors daytime highs near the long-term August mean of 28 °C while limiting extreme surface heating through marine moderation and afternoon sea-breeze development. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members clustering between 26–30 °C and only small tails extending to 31 °C or above, consistent with the market’s steep probability drop-off beyond 29 °C. No major synoptic shifts—such as a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air intrusion—have appeared in the latest model runs, keeping the distribution tightly anchored around climatology. Updated 48-hour forecasts issued on 9 August will be the next catalyst that could narrow or shift the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$106Enddatum
11. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for Istanbul’s August 11 daily maximum centers on 27–29 °C because short-range numerical guidance (GFS, ECMWF) and regional models initialized in early August 2026 place the city under a typical late-summer anticyclonic regime with modest northerly flow off the Black Sea. This steering pattern favors daytime highs near the long-term August mean of 28 °C while limiting extreme surface heating through marine moderation and afternoon sea-breeze development. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members clustering between 26–30 °C and only small tails extending to 31 °C or above, consistent with the market’s steep probability drop-off beyond 29 °C. No major synoptic shifts—such as a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air intrusion—have appeared in the latest model runs, keeping the distribution tightly anchored around climatology. Updated 48-hour forecasts issued on 9 August will be the next catalyst that could narrow or shift the implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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