Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability of 53% to 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, reflecting the latest consensus forecasts from the IMF at 2.4%, the Federal Reserve at 2.2%, and private surveys near 2.1–2.2%. This positioning follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis second-quarter reading of 1.5% annualized growth, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, amid slower government spending and rising imports that offset gains in consumer outlays and business investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures. Moderating labor market momentum and elevated energy prices introduce downside risks, while resilient household spending and productivity trends support the central range ahead of the September 30 annual revisions and upcoming FOMC projections.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2,0–2,5 % 53%
1,5–2,0 % 24.6%
>2,5 % 11.1%
<0,5 % 3.1%
$66,149 Vol.
$66,149 Vol.
28. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
3%
0,5–1,0 %
1%
1,0–1,5 %
1%
1,5–2,0 %
25%
2,0–2,5 %
53%
>2,5 %
11%
2,0–2,5 % 53%
1,5–2,0 % 24.6%
>2,5 % 11.1%
<0,5 % 3.1%
$66,149 Vol.
$66,149 Vol.
28. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$7,933 Vol.
3%
0,5–1,0 %
$17,584 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,5 %
$4,184 Vol.
1%
1,5–2,0 %
$8,226 Vol.
25%
2,0–2,5 %
$11,419 Vol.
53%
>2,5 %
$16,822 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability of 53% to 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, reflecting the latest consensus forecasts from the IMF at 2.4%, the Federal Reserve at 2.2%, and private surveys near 2.1–2.2%. This positioning follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis second-quarter reading of 1.5% annualized growth, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, amid slower government spending and rising imports that offset gains in consumer outlays and business investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures. Moderating labor market momentum and elevated energy prices introduce downside risks, while resilient household spending and productivity trends support the central range ahead of the September 30 annual revisions and upcoming FOMC projections.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$66,149Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability of 53% to 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, reflecting the latest consensus forecasts from the IMF at 2.4%, the Federal Reserve at 2.2%, and private surveys near 2.1–2.2%. This positioning follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis second-quarter reading of 1.5% annualized growth, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, amid slower government spending and rising imports that offset gains in consumer outlays and business investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures. Moderating labor market momentum and elevated energy prices introduce downside risks, while resilient household spending and productivity trends support the central range ahead of the September 30 annual revisions and upcoming FOMC projections.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$66,149Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability of 53% to 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, reflecting the latest consensus forecasts from the IMF at 2.4%, the Federal Reserve at 2.2%, and private surveys near 2.1–2.2%. This positioning follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis second-quarter reading of 1.5% annualized growth, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, amid slower government spending and rising imports that offset gains in consumer outlays and business investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures. Moderating labor market momentum and elevated energy prices introduce downside risks, while resilient household spending and productivity trends support the central range ahead of the September 30 annual revisions and upcoming FOMC projections.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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