Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X underpins the market’s clear preference for the 40-64 bracket at 59% implied probability. Recent short windows, including the September 17-19 period that settled near 51 posts, reflect a steady pace of roughly 15-20 daily contributions combining originals, replies, and reposts when activity centers on AI, Tesla updates, and commentary. Trackers show comparable three-day stretches resolving in the same range absent major platform announcements or breaking news. The 65-89 outcome at 21.5% accounts for potential modest upticks, while the 15% chance of under 40 posts would require an unusually quiet stretch. No high-profile catalysts appear imminent for September 21-23 that would push volume into the low-probability 90-plus brackets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert40-64 59%
65-89 22%
<40 15%
90-114 6%
NEU
$10,224 Vol.
NEU
$10,224 Vol.
23. Sep. 2026
<40
15%
40-64
59%
65-89
22%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 59%
65-89 22%
<40 15%
90-114 6%
NEU
$10,224 Vol.
NEU
$10,224 Vol.
23. Sep. 2026
<40
$4,134 Vol.
15%
40-64
$1,004 Vol.
59%
65-89
$227 Vol.
22%
90-114
$226 Vol.
6%
115-139
$218 Vol.
1%
140-164
$251 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$125 Vol.
1%
190-214
$238 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,904 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,904 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 21 12:00 PM ET to September 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X underpins the market’s clear preference for the 40-64 bracket at 59% implied probability. Recent short windows, including the September 17-19 period that settled near 51 posts, reflect a steady pace of roughly 15-20 daily contributions combining originals, replies, and reposts when activity centers on AI, Tesla updates, and commentary. Trackers show comparable three-day stretches resolving in the same range absent major platform announcements or breaking news. The 65-89 outcome at 21.5% accounts for potential modest upticks, while the 15% chance of under 40 posts would require an unusually quiet stretch. No high-profile catalysts appear imminent for September 21-23 that would push volume into the low-probability 90-plus brackets.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 21 12:00 PM ET to September 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 19, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$10,224Enddatum
23. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 19, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 21 12:00 PM ET to September 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X underpins the market’s clear preference for the 40-64 bracket at 59% implied probability. Recent short windows, including the September 17-19 period that settled near 51 posts, reflect a steady pace of roughly 15-20 daily contributions combining originals, replies, and reposts when activity centers on AI, Tesla updates, and commentary. Trackers show comparable three-day stretches resolving in the same range absent major platform announcements or breaking news. The 65-89 outcome at 21.5% accounts for potential modest upticks, while the 15% chance of under 40 posts would require an unusually quiet stretch. No high-profile catalysts appear imminent for September 21-23 that would push volume into the low-probability 90-plus brackets.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 21 12:00 PM ET to September 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$10,224Enddatum
23. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 19, 2026, 12:07 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X underpins the market’s clear preference for the 40-64 bracket at 59% implied probability. Recent short windows, including the September 17-19 period that settled near 51 posts, reflect a steady pace of roughly 15-20 daily contributions combining originals, replies, and reposts when activity centers on AI, Tesla updates, and commentary. Trackers show comparable three-day stretches resolving in the same range absent major platform announcements or breaking news. The 65-89 outcome at 21.5% accounts for potential modest upticks, while the 15% chance of under 40 posts would require an unusually quiet stretch. No high-profile catalysts appear imminent for September 21-23 that would push volume into the low-probability 90-plus brackets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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