**Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" (84% implied probability) for Carles Puigdemont returning to Spain in 2026, driven by persistent legal barriers despite recent EU-level progress on the amnesty law.** The July 2026 CJEU ruling backed Spain’s amnesty framework as compliant with EU rules on public funds and terrorism, strengthening Puigdemont’s appeal and boosting expectations among Junts and the Sánchez government. However, it left the national arrest warrant intact. The Spanish Supreme Court continues to exclude him from amnesty over alleged malversation with personal enrichment tied to the 2017 referendum funds, a position it has upheld through multiple reviews. The decisive step now rests with the Constitutional Court, which is scheduled to address the amparo appeals only after the summer recess—starting in September or October 2026—with any potential Supreme Court adjustment likely pushing resolution into late 2026 or 2027. Puigdemont’s last brief appearance in Barcelona was in August 2024, and current reporting indicates he and his circle are preparing for a possible return tied to symbolic dates or the 2027 regional elections rather than an immediate move. These timelines, combined with the Supreme Court’s resistance and the multi-step judicial process still ahead, explain the strong market consensus against a 2026 return. Key near-term catalysts include the Constitutional Court’s autumn rulings and any subsequent Supreme Court action, which could clarify or further delay his status.