The special election for California's 14th congressional district, triggered by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, features a June 16 primary that advanced two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff. The Alameda County district's consistent Democratic voting patterns and lack of a Republican finalist in the runoff underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. This setup mirrors historical base rates for the seat, where Democratic nominees have prevailed by wide margins in recent cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or late developments, such as a major scandal affecting both Democratic candidates or a procedural change in election rules, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-14 Wahlsieger
CA-14 Wahlsieger
$35,737 Vol.
$35,737 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
96%
Republikanische Partei
2%
$35,737 Vol.
$35,737 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$13,981 Vol.
96%
Republikanische Partei
$21,756 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The special election for California's 14th congressional district, triggered by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, features a June 16 primary that advanced two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff. The Alameda County district's consistent Democratic voting patterns and lack of a Republican finalist in the runoff underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. This setup mirrors historical base rates for the seat, where Democratic nominees have prevailed by wide margins in recent cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or late developments, such as a major scandal affecting both Democratic candidates or a procedural change in election rules, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$35,737Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The special election for California's 14th congressional district, triggered by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, features a June 16 primary that advanced two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff. The Alameda County district's consistent Democratic voting patterns and lack of a Republican finalist in the runoff underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. This setup mirrors historical base rates for the seat, where Democratic nominees have prevailed by wide margins in recent cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or late developments, such as a major scandal affecting both Democratic candidates or a procedural change in election rules, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$35,737Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The special election for California's 14th congressional district, triggered by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, features a June 16 primary that advanced two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff. The Alameda County district's consistent Democratic voting patterns and lack of a Republican finalist in the runoff underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. This setup mirrors historical base rates for the seat, where Democratic nominees have prevailed by wide margins in recent cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or late developments, such as a major scandal affecting both Democratic candidates or a procedural change in election rules, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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