California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, features heavy Democratic voter registration and a Cook Partisan Voting Index that strongly favors the party. Incumbent Lateefah Simon won the June 2026 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after easily outpacing the lone Republican contender, underscoring limited opposition. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Republican recruitment or recent polling shifts. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or dramatic turnout surge in the general election, though historical patterns in the district make such outcomes unlikely before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-12 Wahlsieger
CA-12 Wahlsieger
$43,474 Vol.
$43,474 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
96%
Republikanische Partei
2%
$43,474 Vol.
$43,474 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$26,300 Vol.
96%
Republikanische Partei
$17,173 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, features heavy Democratic voter registration and a Cook Partisan Voting Index that strongly favors the party. Incumbent Lateefah Simon won the June 2026 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after easily outpacing the lone Republican contender, underscoring limited opposition. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Republican recruitment or recent polling shifts. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or dramatic turnout surge in the general election, though historical patterns in the district make such outcomes unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$43,474Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, features heavy Democratic voter registration and a Cook Partisan Voting Index that strongly favors the party. Incumbent Lateefah Simon won the June 2026 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after easily outpacing the lone Republican contender, underscoring limited opposition. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Republican recruitment or recent polling shifts. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or dramatic turnout surge in the general election, though historical patterns in the district make such outcomes unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$43,474Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 12th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, features heavy Democratic voter registration and a Cook Partisan Voting Index that strongly favors the party. Incumbent Lateefah Simon won the June 2026 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce after easily outpacing the lone Republican contender, underscoring limited opposition. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Republican recruitment or recent polling shifts. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or dramatic turnout surge in the general election, though historical patterns in the district make such outcomes unlikely before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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