The newly redrawn California 1st congressional district, adjusted under Proposition 50, now favors Democrats by double-digit margins in recent presidential and statewide voting, shifting the seat from its prior Republican lean. The death of longtime GOP incumbent Doug LaMalfa created an open race, but primary results on June 2 advanced Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire to the November general election, where nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects the district’s updated partisan voting index, Gallagher’s limited name recognition in the redrawn territory, and the absence of major late developments that could alter turnout or candidate positioning ahead of the November 3 ballot. Low-probability shifts could still arise from unforeseen scandals, health events, or unusually high Republican mobilization in rural counties, though historical patterns in similarly reconfigured California seats suggest limited upside for the GOP nominee.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-01 Wahlsieger
CA-01 Wahlsieger
$23,837 Vol.
$23,837 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
5%
$23,837 Vol.
$23,837 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$15,921 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$7,916 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The newly redrawn California 1st congressional district, adjusted under Proposition 50, now favors Democrats by double-digit margins in recent presidential and statewide voting, shifting the seat from its prior Republican lean. The death of longtime GOP incumbent Doug LaMalfa created an open race, but primary results on June 2 advanced Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire to the November general election, where nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects the district’s updated partisan voting index, Gallagher’s limited name recognition in the redrawn territory, and the absence of major late developments that could alter turnout or candidate positioning ahead of the November 3 ballot. Low-probability shifts could still arise from unforeseen scandals, health events, or unusually high Republican mobilization in rural counties, though historical patterns in similarly reconfigured California seats suggest limited upside for the GOP nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$23,837Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The newly redrawn California 1st congressional district, adjusted under Proposition 50, now favors Democrats by double-digit margins in recent presidential and statewide voting, shifting the seat from its prior Republican lean. The death of longtime GOP incumbent Doug LaMalfa created an open race, but primary results on June 2 advanced Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire to the November general election, where nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects the district’s updated partisan voting index, Gallagher’s limited name recognition in the redrawn territory, and the absence of major late developments that could alter turnout or candidate positioning ahead of the November 3 ballot. Low-probability shifts could still arise from unforeseen scandals, health events, or unusually high Republican mobilization in rural counties, though historical patterns in similarly reconfigured California seats suggest limited upside for the GOP nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$23,837Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The newly redrawn California 1st congressional district, adjusted under Proposition 50, now favors Democrats by double-digit margins in recent presidential and statewide voting, shifting the seat from its prior Republican lean. The death of longtime GOP incumbent Doug LaMalfa created an open race, but primary results on June 2 advanced Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire to the November general election, where nonpartisan race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects the district’s updated partisan voting index, Gallagher’s limited name recognition in the redrawn territory, and the absence of major late developments that could alter turnout or candidate positioning ahead of the November 3 ballot. Low-probability shifts could still arise from unforeseen scandals, health events, or unusually high Republican mobilization in rural counties, though historical patterns in similarly reconfigured California seats suggest limited upside for the GOP nominee.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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