Traders assign a 96% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 because core disputes over territory, particularly full Russian control of Donbas, security guarantees, and recognition of annexations remain unresolved, with formal talks stalled since February 2026. Russia continues incremental battlefield advances and rejects compromise formulas such as a free economic zone or mutual withdrawals, insisting instead on Ukrainian concessions that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. Recent August statements from Ukrainian officials signal openness to September trilateral discussions under U.S. mediation, yet Kremlin responses indicate these proposals are viewed as unacceptable, and active strikes persist. A signed agreement within the narrow window would require rapid convergence on terms that have eluded negotiators for months, though an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or major shift in battlefield dynamics could still alter the outcome.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড4% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Oct 31, 2026
4% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 96% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 because core disputes over territory, particularly full Russian control of Donbas, security guarantees, and recognition of annexations remain unresolved, with formal talks stalled since February 2026. Russia continues incremental battlefield advances and rejects compromise formulas such as a free economic zone or mutual withdrawals, insisting instead on Ukrainian concessions that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. Recent August statements from Ukrainian officials signal openness to September trilateral discussions under U.S. mediation, yet Kremlin responses indicate these proposals are viewed as unacceptable, and active strikes persist. A signed agreement within the narrow window would require rapid convergence on terms that have eluded negotiators for months, though an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or major shift in battlefield dynamics could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$286শেষ তারিখ
Nov 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 96% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 because core disputes over territory, particularly full Russian control of Donbas, security guarantees, and recognition of annexations remain unresolved, with formal talks stalled since February 2026. Russia continues incremental battlefield advances and rejects compromise formulas such as a free economic zone or mutual withdrawals, insisting instead on Ukrainian concessions that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. Recent August statements from Ukrainian officials signal openness to September trilateral discussions under U.S. mediation, yet Kremlin responses indicate these proposals are viewed as unacceptable, and active strikes persist. A signed agreement within the narrow window would require rapid convergence on terms that have eluded negotiators for months, though an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or major shift in battlefield dynamics could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$286শেষ তারিখ
Nov 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 because core disputes over territory, particularly full Russian control of Donbas, security guarantees, and recognition of annexations remain unresolved, with formal talks stalled since February 2026. Russia continues incremental battlefield advances and rejects compromise formulas such as a free economic zone or mutual withdrawals, insisting instead on Ukrainian concessions that Kyiv has repeatedly ruled out. Recent August statements from Ukrainian officials signal openness to September trilateral discussions under U.S. mediation, yet Kremlin responses indicate these proposals are viewed as unacceptable, and active strikes persist. A signed agreement within the narrow window would require rapid convergence on terms that have eluded negotiators for months, though an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or major shift in battlefield dynamics could still alter the outcome.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা