**Trader consensus on the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026" market clusters tightly around 1–3 days** (20.5–22.0% implied probability each), reflecting OpenAI’s recent pattern of frequent but mostly brief service degradations. August 2026 saw multiple incidents—including elevated errors on the 20th, unexpected logouts on the 21st, and issues with Workspace Agents on the 27th—producing three distinct days that qualify under typical Polymarket resolution criteria tied to status.openai.com “Partial/Full Outage” labels. OpenAI’s large language model serving infrastructure continues to face capacity pressure from hundreds of millions of weekly users, rapid model iterations, and component-specific problems such as image generation, file handling, and Thinking mode. Most events resolve in under four hours, yet even short spikes can register as separate outage days. Traders weigh improving baseline uptime against the risk of deployment hiccups or demand surges that could push the total toward four or five days, while a clean month below one day remains plausible if recent mitigation efforts hold. The narrow spread underscores uncertainty over exact incident classification and timing in the month ahead.