**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring the market's 76.5% probability on that total.** Confirmed departures include Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), who is pursuing the governorship. These decisions, spread across announcements from mid-2025 through March 2026, reflect typical factors such as age, health considerations, leadership transitions, and opportunities for higher state office. Trader sentiment treats seven as the baseline because filing deadlines and primary timelines have passed without additional Republican retirements surfacing. The smaller probabilities on nine or eleven outcomes capture residual uncertainty around any late developments, such as unexpected health issues or shifts in political incentives, though no credible reports indicate further exits as of mid-August 2026. The distribution aligns with historical patterns of Senate retirements in midterm cycles while pricing in the current confirmed count.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড7 77%
11 14.6%
9 4.8%
5 1.6%
$101,383 Vol.
$101,383 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
1%
5
2%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
15%
12+
<1%
7 77%
11 14.6%
9 4.8%
5 1.6%
$101,383 Vol.
$101,383 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,752 Vol.
2%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,988 Vol.
77%
8
$4,623 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,873 Vol.
1%
11
$2,845 Vol.
15%
12+
$5,112 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring the market's 76.5% probability on that total.** Confirmed departures include Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), who is pursuing the governorship. These decisions, spread across announcements from mid-2025 through March 2026, reflect typical factors such as age, health considerations, leadership transitions, and opportunities for higher state office.
Trader sentiment treats seven as the baseline because filing deadlines and primary timelines have passed without additional Republican retirements surfacing. The smaller probabilities on nine or eleven outcomes capture residual uncertainty around any late developments, such as unexpected health issues or shifts in political incentives, though no credible reports indicate further exits as of mid-August 2026. The distribution aligns with historical patterns of Senate retirements in midterm cycles while pricing in the current confirmed count.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$101,383শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring the market's 76.5% probability on that total.** Confirmed departures include Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), who is pursuing the governorship. These decisions, spread across announcements from mid-2025 through March 2026, reflect typical factors such as age, health considerations, leadership transitions, and opportunities for higher state office.
Trader sentiment treats seven as the baseline because filing deadlines and primary timelines have passed without additional Republican retirements surfacing. The smaller probabilities on nine or eleven outcomes capture residual uncertainty around any late developments, such as unexpected health issues or shifts in political incentives, though no credible reports indicate further exits as of mid-August 2026. The distribution aligns with historical patterns of Senate retirements in midterm cycles while pricing in the current confirmed count.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$101,383শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring the market's 76.5% probability on that total.** Confirmed departures include Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), who is pursuing the governorship. These decisions, spread across announcements from mid-2025 through March 2026, reflect typical factors such as age, health considerations, leadership transitions, and opportunities for higher state office. Trader sentiment treats seven as the baseline because filing deadlines and primary timelines have passed without additional Republican retirements surfacing. The smaller probabilities on nine or eleven outcomes capture residual uncertainty around any late developments, such as unexpected health issues or shifts in political incentives, though no credible reports indicate further exits as of mid-August 2026. The distribution aligns with historical patterns of Senate retirements in midterm cycles while pricing in the current confirmed count.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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