**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
10-12 86.4%
13-15 5.0%
7-9 1.3%
$51,319 Vol.
$51,319 Vol.
7-9
1%
10-12
86%
13-15
5%
10-12 86.4%
13-15 5.0%
7-9 1.3%
$51,319 Vol.
$51,319 Vol.
7-9
$14,599 Vol.
1%
10-12
$11,153 Vol.
86%
13-15
$5,115 Vol.
5%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
ভলিউম
$51,319মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
ভলিউম
$51,319মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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