**Trader consensus on "No" for an Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the distinction between a significant regional epidemic and a true pandemic.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in Ituri Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with limited imported cases in Uganda, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the WHO in mid-May 2026 but explicitly does not meet pandemic emergency criteria under International Health Regulations. As of mid-August, roughly 4,900–5,000 confirmed cases and about 2,325 deaths have been reported, primarily in the DRC, with Uganda's smaller cluster (20 confirmed cases, 2 deaths) declared over by late July. This scale remains orders of magnitude below historical pandemics and is contained largely within conflict-affected northeastern DRC, aided by isolation measures, contact tracing, and the virus's known epidemiology. Bundibugyo ebolavirus generally shows lower case fatality and transmissibility than the Zaire strain in prior outbreaks, and no sustained community transmission has occurred outside the immediate region. No cases linked to this event have reached the United States or other distant continents. **Key upcoming developments that could still shift odds include updated WHO assessments, major expansions in case counts or geography, or revised modeling of transmission dynamics.** Strong public-health interventions continue to limit spread, supporting the market-implied probability near 96%.