Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 44%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 Vol.
$387,252 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
38%
Lula da Silva <5%
44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 44%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 Vol.
$387,252 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$16,870 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$34,880 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$27,668 Vol.
38%
Lula da Silva <5%
$34,352 Vol.
44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$12,161 Vol.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$10,242 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$17,207 Vol.
6%
Renan Santos Victory
$212,451 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$7,371 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$6,710 Vol.
<1%
Other
$7,340 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$387,252শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ভলিউম
$387,252শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডসম্পর্কিত
ফ্লাভিও বোলসোনারো কি ২০২৬ ব্রাজিলিয়ান প্রেসিডেন্ট নির্বাচনের প্রথম দফায় দ্বিতীয় স্থানে শেষ করবেন?
89%
হ্যাঁ
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
90%
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
52%
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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