The Islamic Republic's survival after 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but left the system intact under Mojtaba Khamenei, has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume leadership by year-end. Pahlavi positioned himself for a transitional role citing January protests and diaspora support, yet the Trump administration declined endorsement for regime change, while donor frustration, opposition fractures, and reported violence among some backers have undermined momentum. Tehran has responded with media campaigns and an indictment on security-related charges. With the regime demonstrating resilience through a June ceasefire and continued governance, skin-in-the-game pricing reflects low odds of Pahlavi securing power absent an unforeseen internal collapse or abrupt external policy reversal within the remaining months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$11,708,765 交易量
$11,708,765 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$11,708,765 交易量
$11,708,765 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic's survival after 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but left the system intact under Mojtaba Khamenei, has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume leadership by year-end. Pahlavi positioned himself for a transitional role citing January protests and diaspora support, yet the Trump administration declined endorsement for regime change, while donor frustration, opposition fractures, and reported violence among some backers have undermined momentum. Tehran has responded with media campaigns and an indictment on security-related charges. With the regime demonstrating resilience through a June ceasefire and continued governance, skin-in-the-game pricing reflects low odds of Pahlavi securing power absent an unforeseen internal collapse or abrupt external policy reversal within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$11,708,765结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic's survival after 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but left the system intact under Mojtaba Khamenei, has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume leadership by year-end. Pahlavi positioned himself for a transitional role citing January protests and diaspora support, yet the Trump administration declined endorsement for regime change, while donor frustration, opposition fractures, and reported violence among some backers have undermined momentum. Tehran has responded with media campaigns and an indictment on security-related charges. With the regime demonstrating resilience through a June ceasefire and continued governance, skin-in-the-game pricing reflects low odds of Pahlavi securing power absent an unforeseen internal collapse or abrupt external policy reversal within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$11,708,765结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic's survival after 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but left the system intact under Mojtaba Khamenei, has anchored trader expectations that Reza Pahlavi will not assume leadership by year-end. Pahlavi positioned himself for a transitional role citing January protests and diaspora support, yet the Trump administration declined endorsement for regime change, while donor frustration, opposition fractures, and reported violence among some backers have undermined momentum. Tehran has responded with media campaigns and an indictment on security-related charges. With the regime demonstrating resilience through a June ceasefire and continued governance, skin-in-the-game pricing reflects low odds of Pahlavi securing power absent an unforeseen internal collapse or abrupt external policy reversal within the remaining months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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