**Ongoing state antitrust litigation and an explicit agreement to pause closing until at least June 2027 are the dominant factors keeping the market-implied probability of a 2026 close at just 25.3%.** In July 2026, attorneys general from 12 states filed suit alleging the $111 billion Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery would reduce competition in film distribution, cable, and streaming. A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order, prompting the parties—including the Writers Guild—to stipulate that Paramount would not close the transaction until after a full trial on the merits or June 1, 2027, whichever comes first. The trial has been scheduled to begin March 2, 2027. Although the U.S. Department of Justice cleared the deal in June and Paramount has secured approvals from roughly 70 other jurisdictions, the multistate lawsuit remains the sole material obstacle. Paramount continues settlement discussions and has offered concessions, yet recent reports of canceled meetings over “lack of good faith” and economic-impact studies highlighting potential job losses underscore the contested nature of any quick resolution. The structure of the agreement and trial calendar make a close by December 31, 2026, improbable absent an unexpected breakthrough before year-end.