**The 79.4% market-implied probability for "No" on Paramount closing its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition by the end of 2026 reflects the binding July 2024 agreement to pause the deal amid ongoing antitrust litigation.** Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery announced the $111 billion all-cash merger on February 27, 2026, with an initial target close in Q3 2026 following DOJ antitrust clearance in June. However, a coalition of 12 states led by California filed suit in mid-July alleging reduced competition in film distribution and cable networks. On July 24, the parties stipulated to halt closing until five days after a federal court ruling or June 1, 2027—whichever comes first—explicitly extending the outside date past year-end 2026. A federal judge in California subsequently scheduled the antitrust trial for March 2027, rejecting efforts for an earlier fall hearing. This timeline, combined with the "ticking fee" structure that only accrues after September 2026, makes closure by December 31, 2026, effectively unattainable without an unexpected rapid resolution or settlement. Traders are pricing in these court-driven delays and regulatory hurdles as the dominant near-term reality.