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icon for 一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?

一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?

icon for 一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?

一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?

22% 概率
Polymarket
最新

22% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 70% reflects the limited pipeline of ultra-high-value consignments expected in the final four months of 2026.** Major auction houses have already delivered record-breaking results earlier in the cycle, including Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* (1948) at $181.2 million in May and Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025. These sales, drawn from exceptional single-owner collections, set new benchmarks for modern and postwar works but have left fewer comparable masterpieces scheduled for the fall season. Recent New York and London evening sales through August have produced strong but lower results, with top lots in the $50–100 million range amid a recovering yet selective market. While November marquee auctions and any late private transactions could still surprise, the absence of confirmed nine-figure offerings at that threshold has shaped trader consensus around the remaining timeline. Historical patterns show such outliers cluster around marquee collections rather than appearing uniformly across the calendar.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$1,395
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 70% reflects the limited pipeline of ultra-high-value consignments expected in the final four months of 2026.** Major auction houses have already delivered record-breaking results earlier in the cycle, including Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* (1948) at $181.2 million in May and Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025. These sales, drawn from exceptional single-owner collections, set new benchmarks for modern and postwar works but have left fewer comparable masterpieces scheduled for the fall season. Recent New York and London evening sales through August have produced strong but lower results, with top lots in the $50–100 million range amid a recovering yet selective market. While November marquee auctions and any late private transactions could still surprise, the absence of confirmed nine-figure offerings at that threshold has shaped trader consensus around the remaining timeline. Historical patterns show such outliers cluster around marquee collections rather than appearing uniformly across the calendar.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$1,395
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"到12月31日,一件艺术品会以1.5亿美元成交吗?",概率为 30%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 30¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 30%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Jun 3, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"的当前领先者是"到12月31日,一件艺术品会以1.5亿美元成交吗?",概率为 30%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 30%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。