Persistent geopolitical conflict since February 2026, including Iranian enforcement actions, mine risks, and U.S. sanctions, has kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 4-7% of pre-crisis levels, with daily commodity vessel movements often in single digits versus 95-plus previously. This underpins the 65% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026, as traders price in sustained blockades, dark transits, and war-risk premiums that deter commercial operators. Brief rebounds after the June U.S.-Iran accord collapsed amid July hostilities, with recent August incidents—including zero outbound crossings and fresh strikes—reinforcing caution. Iran-Oman talks on phased corridors offer limited near-term relief, leaving December at 11% as the leading monthly outcome while August sits near zero.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年不会恢复正常航运 65%
December 11%
September 10%
November 8%
$367,246 交易量
$367,246 交易量
2026-12-31
August
1%
September
10%
October
8%
November
8%
December
11%
2026年不会恢复正常航运
65%
2026年不会恢复正常航运 65%
December 11%
September 10%
November 8%
$367,246 交易量
$367,246 交易量
2026-12-31
August
$47,696 交易量
1%
September
$17,249 交易量
10%
October
$9,352 交易量
8%
November
$7,278 交易量
8%
December
$17,528 交易量
11%
2026年不会恢复正常航运
$242,317 交易量
65%
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical conflict since February 2026, including Iranian enforcement actions, mine risks, and U.S. sanctions, has kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 4-7% of pre-crisis levels, with daily commodity vessel movements often in single digits versus 95-plus previously. This underpins the 65% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026, as traders price in sustained blockades, dark transits, and war-risk premiums that deter commercial operators. Brief rebounds after the June U.S.-Iran accord collapsed amid July hostilities, with recent August incidents—including zero outbound crossings and fresh strikes—reinforcing caution. Iran-Oman talks on phased corridors offer limited near-term relief, leaving December at 11% as the leading monthly outcome while August sits near zero.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$367,246结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical conflict since February 2026, including Iranian enforcement actions, mine risks, and U.S. sanctions, has kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 4-7% of pre-crisis levels, with daily commodity vessel movements often in single digits versus 95-plus previously. This underpins the 65% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026, as traders price in sustained blockades, dark transits, and war-risk premiums that deter commercial operators. Brief rebounds after the June U.S.-Iran accord collapsed amid July hostilities, with recent August incidents—including zero outbound crossings and fresh strikes—reinforcing caution. Iran-Oman talks on phased corridors offer limited near-term relief, leaving December at 11% as the leading monthly outcome while August sits near zero.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$367,246结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical conflict since February 2026, including Iranian enforcement actions, mine risks, and U.S. sanctions, has kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 4-7% of pre-crisis levels, with daily commodity vessel movements often in single digits versus 95-plus previously. This underpins the 65% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026, as traders price in sustained blockades, dark transits, and war-risk premiums that deter commercial operators. Brief rebounds after the June U.S.-Iran accord collapsed amid July hostilities, with recent August incidents—including zero outbound crossings and fresh strikes—reinforcing caution. Iran-Oman talks on phased corridors offer limited near-term relief, leaving December at 11% as the leading monthly outcome while August sits near zero.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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