**Iran maintains active maritime pressure in the Strait of Hormuz through repeated IRGC drone strikes, seizures, and interdictions on commercial vessels.** Recent confirmed incidents include the August 17–18 strike on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY (fatal to the chief engineer) and the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island—the first Iranian boarding since June—alongside earlier hits on vessels such as EVER LOVELY and KIKU. These actions follow the collapse of the June MoU and U.S. blockade reinstatement, with Iran enforcing transit rules, blacklisting noncompliant tankers, and issuing warnings. U.S. responses have included targeted strikes on IRGC assets and mine-clearance operations, yet navigation risks persist into late August. Trader consensus on successful targeting reflects this pattern of sustained asymmetric capabilities amid ongoing regional escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$185,989 交易量
2026-08-24
8月17日
50%
8月18日
37%
August 23
3%
8月24日
51%
8月25日
22%
8月26日
26%
8月27日
32%
August 28
25%
8月29日
17%
8月30日
25%
8月31日
29%
$185,989 交易量
8月17日
$5,546 交易量
50%
8月18日
$2,542 交易量
37%
August 23
$4,030 交易量
3%
8月24日
$10,406 交易量
51%
8月25日
$901 交易量
22%
8月26日
$1,173 交易量
26%
8月27日
$558 交易量
32%
August 28
$1,517 交易量
25%
8月29日
$2,759 交易量
17%
8月30日
$834 交易量
25%
8月31日
$3,669 交易量
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
**Iran maintains active maritime pressure in the Strait of Hormuz through repeated IRGC drone strikes, seizures, and interdictions on commercial vessels.** Recent confirmed incidents include the August 17–18 strike on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY (fatal to the chief engineer) and the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island—the first Iranian boarding since June—alongside earlier hits on vessels such as EVER LOVELY and KIKU. These actions follow the collapse of the June MoU and U.S. blockade reinstatement, with Iran enforcing transit rules, blacklisting noncompliant tankers, and issuing warnings. U.S. responses have included targeted strikes on IRGC assets and mine-clearance operations, yet navigation risks persist into late August. Trader consensus on successful targeting reflects this pattern of sustained asymmetric capabilities amid ongoing regional escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
交易量
$185,989结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
**Iran maintains active maritime pressure in the Strait of Hormuz through repeated IRGC drone strikes, seizures, and interdictions on commercial vessels.** Recent confirmed incidents include the August 17–18 strike on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY (fatal to the chief engineer) and the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island—the first Iranian boarding since June—alongside earlier hits on vessels such as EVER LOVELY and KIKU. These actions follow the collapse of the June MoU and U.S. blockade reinstatement, with Iran enforcing transit rules, blacklisting noncompliant tankers, and issuing warnings. U.S. responses have included targeted strikes on IRGC assets and mine-clearance operations, yet navigation risks persist into late August. Trader consensus on successful targeting reflects this pattern of sustained asymmetric capabilities amid ongoing regional escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$185,989结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran maintains active maritime pressure in the Strait of Hormuz through repeated IRGC drone strikes, seizures, and interdictions on commercial vessels.** Recent confirmed incidents include the August 17–18 strike on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY (fatal to the chief engineer) and the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island—the first Iranian boarding since June—alongside earlier hits on vessels such as EVER LOVELY and KIKU. These actions follow the collapse of the June MoU and U.S. blockade reinstatement, with Iran enforcing transit rules, blacklisting noncompliant tankers, and issuing warnings. U.S. responses have included targeted strikes on IRGC assets and mine-clearance operations, yet navigation risks persist into late August. Trader consensus on successful targeting reflects this pattern of sustained asymmetric capabilities amid ongoing regional escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题