**Most Minnesota congressional districts remain noncompetitive heading into the November 2026 general election, anchoring trader expectations around Democrats holding their current four seats.** The state's eight districts feature entrenched incumbents or strong partisan leans in seven races, with only the open MN-2 (following Rep. Angie Craig's retirement to run for Senate) registering as marginally competitive on recent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Inside Elections. Primaries concluded on August 11, 2026, without altering the underlying map, while national generic ballot polling continues to show a modest Democratic edge that has not translated into district-level movement in Minnesota. **Safe Democratic holds in MN-3, MN-4, and MN-5, paired with safe Republican seats in MN-1, MN-6, MN-7, and MN-8, limit realistic outcomes primarily to four or five seats for Democrats.** MN-2's open status creates the main variable for a potential fifth seat, though its lean favors continuity. Historical patterns of low volatility in the state's U.S. House map since 2020 further support the market's emphasis on four seats as the consensus outcome, with smaller probabilities attached to gains or losses in the single exposed district. No major polling shifts or candidate developments have emerged in the past month to materially alter this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4 53%
少于3个 37%
6+ 30%
5 28%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于3个
37%
3
17%
4
53%
5
28%
6+
30%
4 53%
少于3个 37%
6+ 30%
5 28%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于3个
$0 交易量
37%
3
$0 交易量
17%
4
$0 交易量
53%
5
$0 交易量
28%
6+
$0 交易量
30%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Minnesota in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Most Minnesota congressional districts remain noncompetitive heading into the November 2026 general election, anchoring trader expectations around Democrats holding their current four seats.** The state's eight districts feature entrenched incumbents or strong partisan leans in seven races, with only the open MN-2 (following Rep. Angie Craig's retirement to run for Senate) registering as marginally competitive on recent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Inside Elections. Primaries concluded on August 11, 2026, without altering the underlying map, while national generic ballot polling continues to show a modest Democratic edge that has not translated into district-level movement in Minnesota.
**Safe Democratic holds in MN-3, MN-4, and MN-5, paired with safe Republican seats in MN-1, MN-6, MN-7, and MN-8, limit realistic outcomes primarily to four or five seats for Democrats.** MN-2's open status creates the main variable for a potential fifth seat, though its lean favors continuity. Historical patterns of low volatility in the state's U.S. House map since 2020 further support the market's emphasis on four seats as the consensus outcome, with smaller probabilities attached to gains or losses in the single exposed district. No major polling shifts or candidate developments have emerged in the past month to materially alter this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Minnesota in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 10:02 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Minnesota in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Most Minnesota congressional districts remain noncompetitive heading into the November 2026 general election, anchoring trader expectations around Democrats holding their current four seats.** The state's eight districts feature entrenched incumbents or strong partisan leans in seven races, with only the open MN-2 (following Rep. Angie Craig's retirement to run for Senate) registering as marginally competitive on recent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Inside Elections. Primaries concluded on August 11, 2026, without altering the underlying map, while national generic ballot polling continues to show a modest Democratic edge that has not translated into district-level movement in Minnesota.
**Safe Democratic holds in MN-3, MN-4, and MN-5, paired with safe Republican seats in MN-1, MN-6, MN-7, and MN-8, limit realistic outcomes primarily to four or five seats for Democrats.** MN-2's open status creates the main variable for a potential fifth seat, though its lean favors continuity. Historical patterns of low volatility in the state's U.S. House map since 2020 further support the market's emphasis on four seats as the consensus outcome, with smaller probabilities attached to gains or losses in the single exposed district. No major polling shifts or candidate developments have emerged in the past month to materially alter this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Minnesota in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Most Minnesota congressional districts remain noncompetitive heading into the November 2026 general election, anchoring trader expectations around Democrats holding their current four seats.** The state's eight districts feature entrenched incumbents or strong partisan leans in seven races, with only the open MN-2 (following Rep. Angie Craig's retirement to run for Senate) registering as marginally competitive on recent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Inside Elections. Primaries concluded on August 11, 2026, without altering the underlying map, while national generic ballot polling continues to show a modest Democratic edge that has not translated into district-level movement in Minnesota. **Safe Democratic holds in MN-3, MN-4, and MN-5, paired with safe Republican seats in MN-1, MN-6, MN-7, and MN-8, limit realistic outcomes primarily to four or five seats for Democrats.** MN-2's open status creates the main variable for a potential fifth seat, though its lean favors continuity. Historical patterns of low volatility in the state's U.S. House map since 2020 further support the market's emphasis on four seats as the consensus outcome, with smaller probabilities attached to gains or losses in the single exposed district. No major polling shifts or candidate developments have emerged in the past month to materially alter this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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