Recent inflation readings, including PCE near 4.1% and core at 3.4% through May 2026 amid Middle East energy supply shocks, have anchored trader expectations for the 5-year Treasury yield. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% since late 2025, with markets now pricing a notable chance of a September hike as officials prioritize price stability. This policy backdrop, combined with rising term premiums from $40 trillion-plus federal debt and heavy Treasury plus corporate issuance, has driven the 5-year yield to approximately 4.55% as of September 4. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and fresh CPI/PCE prints, which could shift rate-path expectations and influence how far yields compress during the month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
低于4.52%
63%
低于4.49%
62%
低于4.46%
50%
低于4.43%
50%
低于4.40%
50%
低于4.37%
50%
低于4.32%
50%
低于4.27%
50%
低于4.20%
38%
$485 交易量
低于4.52%
$374 交易量
63%
低于4.49%
$64 交易量
62%
低于4.46%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.43%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.40%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.37%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.32%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.27%
$0 交易量
50%
低于4.20%
$46 交易量
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent inflation readings, including PCE near 4.1% and core at 3.4% through May 2026 amid Middle East energy supply shocks, have anchored trader expectations for the 5-year Treasury yield. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% since late 2025, with markets now pricing a notable chance of a September hike as officials prioritize price stability. This policy backdrop, combined with rising term premiums from $40 trillion-plus federal debt and heavy Treasury plus corporate issuance, has driven the 5-year yield to approximately 4.55% as of September 4. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and fresh CPI/PCE prints, which could shift rate-path expectations and influence how far yields compress during the month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET
交易量
$485结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent inflation readings, including PCE near 4.1% and core at 3.4% through May 2026 amid Middle East energy supply shocks, have anchored trader expectations for the 5-year Treasury yield. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% since late 2025, with markets now pricing a notable chance of a September hike as officials prioritize price stability. This policy backdrop, combined with rising term premiums from $40 trillion-plus federal debt and heavy Treasury plus corporate issuance, has driven the 5-year yield to approximately 4.55% as of September 4. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and fresh CPI/PCE prints, which could shift rate-path expectations and influence how far yields compress during the month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$485结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ETRecent inflation readings, including PCE near 4.1% and core at 3.4% through May 2026 amid Middle East energy supply shocks, have anchored trader expectations for the 5-year Treasury yield. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% since late 2025, with markets now pricing a notable chance of a September hike as officials prioritize price stability. This policy backdrop, combined with rising term premiums from $40 trillion-plus federal debt and heavy Treasury plus corporate issuance, has driven the 5-year yield to approximately 4.55% as of September 4. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and fresh CPI/PCE prints, which could shift rate-path expectations and influence how far yields compress during the month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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