Elevated inflation expectations and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring the 30-year Treasury yield near multi-decade highs around 5.24% as of early September 2026. Persistent above-target CPI readings, energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions, and a strong August jobs report have reduced odds of near-term easing while raising the prospect of a September rate hike at the FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th. Upcoming releases, including September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI for August, plus the dot plot, will shape trader views on whether yields can test lower levels or remain supported by term premium and fiscal supply. Market-implied odds reflect caution, with real yields also elevated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
低于5.24%
85%
低于5.21%
69%
低于5.18%
59%
低于5.15%
51%
低于5.12%
41%
低于5.09%
34%
低于5.05%
24%
低于5.00%
14%
低于4.95%
12%
$1,170 交易量
低于5.24%
$282 交易量
85%
低于5.21%
$103 交易量
69%
低于5.18%
$0 交易量
59%
低于5.15%
$0 交易量
51%
低于5.12%
$570 交易量
41%
低于5.09%
$21 交易量
34%
低于5.05%
$0 交易量
24%
低于5.00%
$40 交易量
14%
低于4.95%
$155 交易量
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated inflation expectations and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring the 30-year Treasury yield near multi-decade highs around 5.24% as of early September 2026. Persistent above-target CPI readings, energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions, and a strong August jobs report have reduced odds of near-term easing while raising the prospect of a September rate hike at the FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th. Upcoming releases, including September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI for August, plus the dot plot, will shape trader views on whether yields can test lower levels or remain supported by term premium and fiscal supply. Market-implied odds reflect caution, with real yields also elevated.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
交易量
$1,170结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated inflation expectations and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring the 30-year Treasury yield near multi-decade highs around 5.24% as of early September 2026. Persistent above-target CPI readings, energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions, and a strong August jobs report have reduced odds of near-term easing while raising the prospect of a September rate hike at the FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th. Upcoming releases, including September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI for August, plus the dot plot, will shape trader views on whether yields can test lower levels or remain supported by term premium and fiscal supply. Market-implied odds reflect caution, with real yields also elevated.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$1,170结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETElevated inflation expectations and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring the 30-year Treasury yield near multi-decade highs around 5.24% as of early September 2026. Persistent above-target CPI readings, energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions, and a strong August jobs report have reduced odds of near-term easing while raising the prospect of a September rate hike at the FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th. Upcoming releases, including September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI for August, plus the dot plot, will shape trader views on whether yields can test lower levels or remain supported by term premium and fiscal supply. Market-implied odds reflect caution, with real yields also elevated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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