Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above forecasts, have driven the primary upward pressure on 5-year Treasury yields, lifting them to 4.52-4.55% as of September 4 and boosting market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 52-65%. This labor market strength, combined with persistent inflation concerns, has narrowed the spread between the 5-year yield and the federal funds rate to around 0.89 percentage points while elevating breakeven inflation measures near 2.38%. Traders now focus on the September 11 CPI release and the FOMC’s updated Summary of Economic Projections as key catalysts that could extend the recent yield advance or cap further gains near multi-year highs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
4.90%
5%
4.83%
38%
4.78%
50%
4.73%
50%
4.70%
50%
4.67%
50%
4.64%
50%
4.61%
53%
4.58%
66%
$0.00 交易量
4.90%
$0 交易量
5%
4.83%
$0 交易量
38%
4.78%
$0 交易量
50%
4.73%
$0 交易量
50%
4.70%
$0 交易量
50%
4.67%
$0 交易量
50%
4.64%
$0 交易量
50%
4.61%
$0 交易量
53%
4.58%
$0 交易量
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above forecasts, have driven the primary upward pressure on 5-year Treasury yields, lifting them to 4.52-4.55% as of September 4 and boosting market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 52-65%. This labor market strength, combined with persistent inflation concerns, has narrowed the spread between the 5-year yield and the federal funds rate to around 0.89 percentage points while elevating breakeven inflation measures near 2.38%. Traders now focus on the September 11 CPI release and the FOMC’s updated Summary of Economic Projections as key catalysts that could extend the recent yield advance or cap further gains near multi-year highs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above forecasts, have driven the primary upward pressure on 5-year Treasury yields, lifting them to 4.52-4.55% as of September 4 and boosting market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 52-65%. This labor market strength, combined with persistent inflation concerns, has narrowed the spread between the 5-year yield and the federal funds rate to around 0.89 percentage points while elevating breakeven inflation measures near 2.38%. Traders now focus on the September 11 CPI release and the FOMC’s updated Summary of Economic Projections as key catalysts that could extend the recent yield advance or cap further gains near multi-year highs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETStrong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above forecasts, have driven the primary upward pressure on 5-year Treasury yields, lifting them to 4.52-4.55% as of September 4 and boosting market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to roughly 52-65%. This labor market strength, combined with persistent inflation concerns, has narrowed the spread between the 5-year yield and the federal funds rate to around 0.89 percentage points while elevating breakeven inflation measures near 2.38%. Traders now focus on the September 11 CPI release and the FOMC’s updated Summary of Economic Projections as key catalysts that could extend the recent yield advance or cap further gains near multi-year highs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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