Traders assign the highest probabilities to a peak of 31–33°C on August 21 in Chengdu because recent model guidance shows daytime highs clustered in this narrow range amid typical late-summer monsoon conditions. Persistent high humidity, basin topography that limits ventilation, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms introduce modest uncertainty in maximum readings; cloud cover and rainfall timing can easily trim or boost the daily peak by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology for the city centers near 30–32°C, with occasional excursions above 34°C when subsidence strengthens. Upcoming short-range forecast updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will clarify steering patterns and convective timing, directly influencing whether the market tilts toward the lower or higher end of the current 31–33°C cluster.