Florida’s November 2026 special Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democratic nominee Angie Nixon following primaries concluded August 18. Trader consensus clusters around 8–9 million total votes because midterm and special-election turnout historically varies with economic pressures such as property insurance costs and housing affordability, which dominate voter surveys. Recent Democratic primary results and sustained campaign fundraising by both sides have kept enthusiasm balanced without a clear surge in either direction. Factors that could separate the brackets include upcoming polling on candidate support, intensity of get-out-the-vote operations, or any late developments on immigration, taxes, or national political events that alter participation rates in this large swing-state electorate.