Stable U.S. economic data and the absence of acute financial stress have anchored trader consensus against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, with the 96.2% implied probability reflecting broad confidence that scheduled FOMC meetings will suffice. Recent inflation readings near target, resilient labor market metrics, and contained Treasury yield volatility reinforce expectations for measured policy adjustments rather than inter-meeting action. Historical precedent shows such cuts occur only amid crises like 2008 or 2020, conditions not currently evident. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden banking-sector shock, sharp equity-market decline exceeding 20%, or geopolitical escalation triggering liquidity strains, though these remain low-probability events priced into current market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$194,249 交易量
$194,249 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$194,249 交易量
$194,249 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Stable U.S. economic data and the absence of acute financial stress have anchored trader consensus against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, with the 96.2% implied probability reflecting broad confidence that scheduled FOMC meetings will suffice. Recent inflation readings near target, resilient labor market metrics, and contained Treasury yield volatility reinforce expectations for measured policy adjustments rather than inter-meeting action. Historical precedent shows such cuts occur only amid crises like 2008 or 2020, conditions not currently evident. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden banking-sector shock, sharp equity-market decline exceeding 20%, or geopolitical escalation triggering liquidity strains, though these remain low-probability events priced into current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$194,249结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Stable U.S. economic data and the absence of acute financial stress have anchored trader consensus against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, with the 96.2% implied probability reflecting broad confidence that scheduled FOMC meetings will suffice. Recent inflation readings near target, resilient labor market metrics, and contained Treasury yield volatility reinforce expectations for measured policy adjustments rather than inter-meeting action. Historical precedent shows such cuts occur only amid crises like 2008 or 2020, conditions not currently evident. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden banking-sector shock, sharp equity-market decline exceeding 20%, or geopolitical escalation triggering liquidity strains, though these remain low-probability events priced into current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
交易量
$194,249结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETStable U.S. economic data and the absence of acute financial stress have anchored trader consensus against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, with the 96.2% implied probability reflecting broad confidence that scheduled FOMC meetings will suffice. Recent inflation readings near target, resilient labor market metrics, and contained Treasury yield volatility reinforce expectations for measured policy adjustments rather than inter-meeting action. Historical precedent shows such cuts occur only amid crises like 2008 or 2020, conditions not currently evident. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden banking-sector shock, sharp equity-market decline exceeding 20%, or geopolitical escalation triggering liquidity strains, though these remain low-probability events priced into current market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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