Traders have driven the 40-64 bracket to 87% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace over the past week has settled into moderate ranges without the sustained spikes seen in higher-volume periods earlier in September. Recent three-day windows, including a sub-40 outcome from September 5-7, reflect quieter stretches focused on routine X platform commentary, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than major news cycles or product announcements that typically push daily output above 25 posts. With the market resolving today, September 12, the consensus reflects historical patterns of 13–21 tweets per day during non-event windows, tempered by the short timeframe and absence of fresh catalysts that could shift volume into the 65-89 band.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-64 88%
65-89 10%
少于40条 2.3%
90-114 <1%
$281,921 交易量
$281,921 交易量
2026-09-12
少于40条
2%
40-64
88%
65-89
10%
90-114
1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240条及以上
<1%
40-64 88%
65-89 10%
少于40条 2.3%
90-114 <1%
$281,921 交易量
$281,921 交易量
2026-09-12
少于40条
$86,054 交易量
2%
40-64
$43,081 交易量
88%
65-89
$62,912 交易量
10%
90-114
$28,492 交易量
1%
115-139
$34,533 交易量
<1%
140-164
$16,530 交易量
<1%
165-189
$5,863 交易量
<1%
190-214
$2,799 交易量
<1%
215-239
$931 交易量
<1%
240条及以上
$726 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have driven the 40-64 bracket to 87% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace over the past week has settled into moderate ranges without the sustained spikes seen in higher-volume periods earlier in September. Recent three-day windows, including a sub-40 outcome from September 5-7, reflect quieter stretches focused on routine X platform commentary, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than major news cycles or product announcements that typically push daily output above 25 posts. With the market resolving today, September 12, the consensus reflects historical patterns of 13–21 tweets per day during non-event windows, tempered by the short timeframe and absence of fresh catalysts that could shift volume into the 65-89 band.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$281,921结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have driven the 40-64 bracket to 87% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace over the past week has settled into moderate ranges without the sustained spikes seen in higher-volume periods earlier in September. Recent three-day windows, including a sub-40 outcome from September 5-7, reflect quieter stretches focused on routine X platform commentary, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than major news cycles or product announcements that typically push daily output above 25 posts. With the market resolving today, September 12, the consensus reflects historical patterns of 13–21 tweets per day during non-event windows, tempered by the short timeframe and absence of fresh catalysts that could shift volume into the 65-89 band.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$281,921结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ETTraders have driven the 40-64 bracket to 87% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace over the past week has settled into moderate ranges without the sustained spikes seen in higher-volume periods earlier in September. Recent three-day windows, including a sub-40 outcome from September 5-7, reflect quieter stretches focused on routine X platform commentary, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than major news cycles or product announcements that typically push daily output above 25 posts. With the market resolving today, September 12, the consensus reflects historical patterns of 13–21 tweets per day during non-event windows, tempered by the short timeframe and absence of fresh catalysts that could shift volume into the 65-89 band.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题