Banxico’s unanimous August decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% and its explicit forward guidance that the current level remains appropriate have anchored trader consensus around no change in the September meeting, reflected in the 96.9% implied probability. Cooling headline inflation to 3.12% in July, with core measures also easing though still above the 3% target, alongside subdued economic growth and persistent external risks such as U.S. monetary policy shifts and trade uncertainties, support the case for maintaining the restrictive stance established after the 475-basis-point easing cycle concluded in May. Analysts broadly project the rate staying at 6.50% through year-end and into 2027, consistent with the central bank’s updated inflation convergence timeline into late 2027. A material upside surprise in August CPI or a sharp widening in the Mexico-U.S. rate differential could introduce limited volatility, though current data and communications point to limited scope for near-term adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于未变 96.8%
加息25个基点 1.9%
下调25个基点 1.9%
下调50个基点以上 <1%
$52,004 交易量
$52,004 交易量
2026-09-24
下调50个基点以上
<1%
下调25个基点
2%
未变
97%
加息25个基点
2%
上调50个基点以上
<1%
未变 96.8%
加息25个基点 1.9%
下调25个基点 1.9%
下调50个基点以上 <1%
$52,004 交易量
$52,004 交易量
2026-09-24
下调50个基点以上
$3,662 交易量
<1%
下调25个基点
$12,261 交易量
2%
未变
$26,707 交易量
97%
加息25个基点
$6,341 交易量
2%
上调50个基点以上
$3,034 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s unanimous August decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% and its explicit forward guidance that the current level remains appropriate have anchored trader consensus around no change in the September meeting, reflected in the 96.9% implied probability. Cooling headline inflation to 3.12% in July, with core measures also easing though still above the 3% target, alongside subdued economic growth and persistent external risks such as U.S. monetary policy shifts and trade uncertainties, support the case for maintaining the restrictive stance established after the 475-basis-point easing cycle concluded in May. Analysts broadly project the rate staying at 6.50% through year-end and into 2027, consistent with the central bank’s updated inflation convergence timeline into late 2027. A material upside surprise in August CPI or a sharp widening in the Mexico-U.S. rate differential could introduce limited volatility, though current data and communications point to limited scope for near-term adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
交易量
$52,004结束日期
2026-09-24市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s unanimous August decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% and its explicit forward guidance that the current level remains appropriate have anchored trader consensus around no change in the September meeting, reflected in the 96.9% implied probability. Cooling headline inflation to 3.12% in July, with core measures also easing though still above the 3% target, alongside subdued economic growth and persistent external risks such as U.S. monetary policy shifts and trade uncertainties, support the case for maintaining the restrictive stance established after the 475-basis-point easing cycle concluded in May. Analysts broadly project the rate staying at 6.50% through year-end and into 2027, consistent with the central bank’s updated inflation convergence timeline into late 2027. A material upside surprise in August CPI or a sharp widening in the Mexico-U.S. rate differential could introduce limited volatility, though current data and communications point to limited scope for near-term adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
交易量
$52,004结束日期
2026-09-24市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETBanxico’s unanimous August decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% and its explicit forward guidance that the current level remains appropriate have anchored trader consensus around no change in the September meeting, reflected in the 96.9% implied probability. Cooling headline inflation to 3.12% in July, with core measures also easing though still above the 3% target, alongside subdued economic growth and persistent external risks such as U.S. monetary policy shifts and trade uncertainties, support the case for maintaining the restrictive stance established after the 475-basis-point easing cycle concluded in May. Analysts broadly project the rate staying at 6.50% through year-end and into 2027, consistent with the central bank’s updated inflation convergence timeline into late 2027. A material upside surprise in August CPI or a sharp widening in the Mexico-U.S. rate differential could introduce limited volatility, though current data and communications point to limited scope for near-term adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题