Kate Marshall led the June 9, 2026 nonpartisan primary with roughly 45 percent of the vote and advances automatically to the November 3 general election. Kathleen Taylor and Eddie Lorton remain locked in a narrow contest for second place, with Taylor holding a slim edge that would set up a general-election matchup against Marshall. The large field of declared candidates, absence of post-primary polling, and term-limited incumbent Hillary Schieve create broad uncertainty about voter preferences in the runoff. Trader consensus reflects this even split among viable contenders, with separation likely to emerge only after final primary certification, campaign fundraising disclosures, or early general-election surveys that clarify turnout patterns and key local issues such as economic development and city services.