**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have sharply curtailed but not eliminated transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and a primary alternative route for Saudi crude exports amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Perim (Mayun) Island and Mokha port in September 2026 enabled tighter control, driving daily crossings down sharply—halving from ~30 to as low as 6-15 vessels on some days per Kpler and TankerMap data, with tanker traffic particularly depressed. Saudi-linked loadings fell ~50% as carriers diverted or went dark, pushing some VLCCs toward Suez pipelines or the Cape of Good Hope route and lifting war-risk insurance premiums plus voyage times and costs. Oil benchmarks responded with Brent near $104-110/bbl amid supply uncertainty. While selective clearances for Chinese and other non-targeted vessels allow limited traffic to persist, any escalation in attacks or insurance withdrawals could further compress volumes; upcoming Saudi or coalition responses and carrier routing decisions remain key swing factors for whether averages approach effective closure levels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
9月30日
7%
12月31日
35%
$49 交易量
9月30日
$47 交易量
7%
12月31日
$2 交易量
35%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have sharply curtailed but not eliminated transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and a primary alternative route for Saudi crude exports amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Perim (Mayun) Island and Mokha port in September 2026 enabled tighter control, driving daily crossings down sharply—halving from ~30 to as low as 6-15 vessels on some days per Kpler and TankerMap data, with tanker traffic particularly depressed. Saudi-linked loadings fell ~50% as carriers diverted or went dark, pushing some VLCCs toward Suez pipelines or the Cape of Good Hope route and lifting war-risk insurance premiums plus voyage times and costs. Oil benchmarks responded with Brent near $104-110/bbl amid supply uncertainty. While selective clearances for Chinese and other non-targeted vessels allow limited traffic to persist, any escalation in attacks or insurance withdrawals could further compress volumes; upcoming Saudi or coalition responses and carrier routing decisions remain key swing factors for whether averages approach effective closure levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$49结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have sharply curtailed but not eliminated transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and a primary alternative route for Saudi crude exports amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Perim (Mayun) Island and Mokha port in September 2026 enabled tighter control, driving daily crossings down sharply—halving from ~30 to as low as 6-15 vessels on some days per Kpler and TankerMap data, with tanker traffic particularly depressed. Saudi-linked loadings fell ~50% as carriers diverted or went dark, pushing some VLCCs toward Suez pipelines or the Cape of Good Hope route and lifting war-risk insurance premiums plus voyage times and costs. Oil benchmarks responded with Brent near $104-110/bbl amid supply uncertainty. While selective clearances for Chinese and other non-targeted vessels allow limited traffic to persist, any escalation in attacks or insurance withdrawals could further compress volumes; upcoming Saudi or coalition responses and carrier routing decisions remain key swing factors for whether averages approach effective closure levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$49结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET**Houthi territorial gains in Yemen have sharply curtailed but not eliminated transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 10-12% of global seaborne trade and a primary alternative route for Saudi crude exports amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.** Recent seizures of Perim (Mayun) Island and Mokha port in September 2026 enabled tighter control, driving daily crossings down sharply—halving from ~30 to as low as 6-15 vessels on some days per Kpler and TankerMap data, with tanker traffic particularly depressed. Saudi-linked loadings fell ~50% as carriers diverted or went dark, pushing some VLCCs toward Suez pipelines or the Cape of Good Hope route and lifting war-risk insurance premiums plus voyage times and costs. Oil benchmarks responded with Brent near $104-110/bbl amid supply uncertainty. While selective clearances for Chinese and other non-targeted vessels allow limited traffic to persist, any escalation in attacks or insurance withdrawals could further compress volumes; upcoming Saudi or coalition responses and carrier routing decisions remain key swing factors for whether averages approach effective closure levels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题