Recent high-end auction results, including multiple nine-figure sales in 2025 and early 2026 such as the Klimt portrait at $236 million and a Pollock work at $181 million, have set expectations, yet trader consensus favors “No” because ultra-high-end liquidity remains concentrated in estate-driven events with softening momentum elsewhere. The market has seen limited volume above $100 million this year outside flagship collections, and private-sale activity has not produced comparable records amid cautious collector spending. Fall marquee auctions at Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips represent the key remaining catalyst, but thin supply of trophy lots and historical scarcity of $150 million-plus transactions support the current 66% implied probability for “No.”