The U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela’s leader by December 31 faces near-certain trader consensus against it because the Trump administration has maintained diplomatic relations and policy engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez since Maduro’s January 2026 removal. Washington has prioritized stabilization, oil-sector cooperation, and phased talks involving regime figures and select opposition voices rather than elevating Machado, who remains in exile and has been publicly distanced by U.S. officials. Recent developments, including U.S. rejection of her proposed return amid earthquake recovery and ongoing dialogue processes excluding her leadership, reinforce this stance. Late shifts remain possible if major diplomatic realignments, domestic Venezuelan upheaval, or explicit White House announcements alter the current gradual-transition framework before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$179,280 交易量
$179,280 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 機率
$179,280 交易量
$179,280 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela’s leader by December 31 faces near-certain trader consensus against it because the Trump administration has maintained diplomatic relations and policy engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez since Maduro’s January 2026 removal. Washington has prioritized stabilization, oil-sector cooperation, and phased talks involving regime figures and select opposition voices rather than elevating Machado, who remains in exile and has been publicly distanced by U.S. officials. Recent developments, including U.S. rejection of her proposed return amid earthquake recovery and ongoing dialogue processes excluding her leadership, reinforce this stance. Late shifts remain possible if major diplomatic realignments, domestic Venezuelan upheaval, or explicit White House announcements alter the current gradual-transition framework before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$179,280結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela’s leader by December 31 faces near-certain trader consensus against it because the Trump administration has maintained diplomatic relations and policy engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez since Maduro’s January 2026 removal. Washington has prioritized stabilization, oil-sector cooperation, and phased talks involving regime figures and select opposition voices rather than elevating Machado, who remains in exile and has been publicly distanced by U.S. officials. Recent developments, including U.S. rejection of her proposed return amid earthquake recovery and ongoing dialogue processes excluding her leadership, reinforce this stance. Late shifts remain possible if major diplomatic realignments, domestic Venezuelan upheaval, or explicit White House announcements alter the current gradual-transition framework before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$179,280結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETThe U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela’s leader by December 31 faces near-certain trader consensus against it because the Trump administration has maintained diplomatic relations and policy engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez since Maduro’s January 2026 removal. Washington has prioritized stabilization, oil-sector cooperation, and phased talks involving regime figures and select opposition voices rather than elevating Machado, who remains in exile and has been publicly distanced by U.S. officials. Recent developments, including U.S. rejection of her proposed return amid earthquake recovery and ongoing dialogue processes excluding her leadership, reinforce this stance. Late shifts remain possible if major diplomatic realignments, domestic Venezuelan upheaval, or explicit White House announcements alter the current gradual-transition framework before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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